屠新泉，李思奇：WTO改革的稳与进

魏建国：世界贸易体制需要改革，中美可以发挥作用

专家简介

徐秀军：金砖般的定力

徐秀军，全球化智库（CCG）特邀高级研究员，中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所国际政治经济学研究室副主任

何伟文：世贸组织无法被取代

专家简介 何伟文，全球化智库（CCG）高级研究员。 　　美国总统特朗普与欧委会主席容克近日发表意向性联合声明，被一些自媒体炒作到了天上。有的认为美欧日零关税大市场呼之欲出，WTO将被边缘化，甚至成为“废纸一张”。这完全是江湖炒作，没有事实和科学根据。 　　首先，眼下美欧声称要谈自贸协定只是一种机会主义的愿景，旨在稳住美欧贸易关系。如果启动并最终达成协议，需要经过数年艰苦的谈判。目前看来这一前景相当渺茫。根据是：第一，容克仅是欧盟28国(英国尚未办完脱欧手续)的管家，不是老板。欧盟是以一致通过为议事规则，只要有一个国家反对就可能泡汤。法国总统马克龙已经表示反对。第二，即便启动，也只是2013年美欧谈判的跨大西洋伙伴关系(TTIP)的简装版。尽管美欧领导人为推动TTIP不遗余力，仍因分歧太大，无疾而终。特朗普当美国总统，困难就更大了。第三，特朗普要的是立竿见影的“政绩”和选票，那些费功夫的事，他未必有兴趣。他把新闻造出来了，支持率上去了，剩下的就不重要了。 　　其次，美欧日相互贸易只覆盖世界贸易一小部分，在世界贸易中的比重都不大。据美国官方统计，2018年1-5月，美国商品进出口总计17057.94亿美元。按区域分，最大贸易伙伴是亚太，5304.30亿美元，占总额31.1%;其次是北美(加墨)，5062.57亿美元，占总额29.7%。与欧盟贸易额仅3315.51亿美元，占19.4%。 　　在亚太各贸易伙伴中，美日贸易只有882.06亿美元，占5.2%。欧盟的主要贸易伙伴也不是美国，而是区内贸易。2017年欧盟出口总额中，区内贸易占64%。美国只占欧盟外贸16.9%，仅略高于中国(15.3%)。日本只占3.5%，排在瑞士、俄罗斯、土耳其之后，居第6位;不及中国1/4。日本的最大贸易伙伴则既非美国，亦非欧盟，而是中国。2017年美欧、美日、欧日贸易额之和约10670亿美元。尚不及中国与RCEP伙伴的贸易额(13331.92亿美元)。 　　再次，美欧日没有覆盖全球供应链的全部。为什么美欧日之间的贸易额并不大？一个基本原因是，它们都占据商品生产高端，属于水平分工和水平竞争，缺乏原材料和中间品的生产，也缺少组装。这部分多在新兴和发展中国家进行。因此他们需要与后者进行大量贸易。美欧日加与新兴发展中国家一起，才能构成全球供应链。这也是为何美日和新兴与发展中国家贸易额，往往大于它们之间的双边贸易额的缘故。 　　因此，即便美欧、美日历经数年终于达成某种程度的自贸协定，加上欧日自贸协定，也只是美欧、美日和欧日三个跨区域或双边协定，或世界数百个区域及双边贸易协定中的三个，远远不是世界贸易安排的全部。它们要制定规则，也只是局部规则，或多边贸易规则的补充。相反，它们已经并将必须继续和大批新兴与发展中国家签署自贸安排。因此，规范全球贸易和全球供应链的只能是多边贸易机制，多边贸易机制只能是以目前已有164个经济体的世贸组织为中心。世贸组织当然需要与时俱进，需要改革，但无法被取代。任何夸大美欧日贸易安排和否定世贸组织的说法，都是没有根据的。 文章选自《环球时报》，2018年8月1日

【Global Times】China dismisses criticism at WTO

Biennial review of trade policies started   China on Thursday defended its role at the WTO as it faces rising criticism from some WTO members, saying that it has fulfilled its promise to the multilateral trade body and its continued reform efforts have created great opportunities for global economic growth and tangible benefits for trade and investment partners. As the WTO started a biennial review of China’s trade policies, which comes amid rising unilateralism and trade protectionism particularly in the US, Chinese officials urged other countries to stop their unfair criticism of China and called on fellow WTO members to fight the trade bully. "We urge certain members not to look at China through colored glasses and characterize China using outdated thinking," Gao Feng, a spokesperson for the Chinese Ministry of Commerce, told a briefing on Thursday. "Since joining the WTO, China has always complied with WTO rules and fulfilled its obligations as a responsible member." Leading the way Gao’s comment followed an earlier speech by Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen at the 7th WTO Trade Policy Review of China in Geneva, which highlighted China’s contribution to the global economy. "As it prepares itself for globalization, China has created important opportunities for world economic growth and delivered tangible benefits to its trade and investment partners," Chinese Vice Minister of Commerce Wang Shouwen told a WTO session on Wednesday. Wang pointed out that between 2001, when China first joined the WTO, and 2017, China’s imports grew at an annual average rate of 13.5 percent, twice as fast as the global average, while imports of services rose by 16.7 percent during the period, 2.7 times that of the global average. As part of the WTO review, China received 1,963 written questions from 42 members. Wang said China has answered the 1,627 questions submitted before June 28 and will answer the rest within a month in accordance with WTO rules. While China received slightly more questions this time, "there was no significant increase," said Tu Xinquan, dean of the China Institute for WTO Studies at the University of International Business and Economics in Beijing, noting that the review is "merely a platform" for communication. "It is natural for other members to have questions about China. If there is any problem, that’s OK, because we can easily address it through WTO rules," He Weiwen, a senior fellow at the Center for China and Globalization (CCG), told the Global Times on Thursday. "But if some countries criticize China using their own standards, then that’s irrelevant." Ironic criticism Citing alleged harmful industrial policies and the forced transfer of foreign technologies, US officials reportedly said at the meeting that China had failed to abide by WTO rules and called for "a reckoning" over China. The EU, Japan and other members will reportedly join the US in criticizing China at the meeting. "By using its own standards at the WTO, it’s the US which is not abiding by WTO rules," He said, adding that the WTO is a multilateral body and that the US cannot dictate its procedures, especially after its recent unilateral and projectionist actions. The US has taken a series of actions against China and other WTO members. It has slapped tariffs on Chinese goods worth $34 billion, while threatening tariffs on as much as $200 billion more. "It is absurd that the US is trying to use the very same organization it ignores in its unilateral actions to restrain China," He said, adding that the US has received more than a dozen complaints at the WTO for its unilateral actions, including  those from the EU and Japan. In an apparent reference to the US, Wang called on all WTO members to "firmly stand up to the trade bully, protectionism and unilateralism," saying that the multilateral trading system is confronted with severe challenges. From Global Times，2018-7-12