CCG持续对企业全球化、 “走出去”和“引进来” 展开双向研究，以当前国际背景下的中美贸易、国际贸易、来华投资、对外投资、数字贸易为主题，进行分析、研究与解读。CCG 不断寻求更多力量来推动全球自由贸易发展，率先推动中国加入 CPTPP，并发布系列研究报告。此外，CCG 课题组常年编写国内唯一的“企业国际化蓝皮书”《中国企业全球化报告》，并在中国社会科学文献出版社出版。CCG还研发出版了《世界华商发展报告》、《大潮澎湃——中国企业“出海”四十年》、China Goes Global 、The Globalization of Chinese Enterprises 等企业全球化研究中英文图书系列。CCG还创办了国内最具影响力的专注于企业全球化发展的“中国企业全球化论坛”，围绕国际贸易与投资相关国际议题设置多场分论坛，云集国内外极具影响力的跨国公司领袖、驻华大使、前政要官员、国际组织与商会负责人、国际顶尖智库专家及知名学者深度研讨，已发展成为推动企业全球化发展的国际高端论坛。
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庞中英 |“贸易磋商”治理“贸易战”:中美需达成《中美贸易协定》
庞中英，CCG特邀高级研究员，中国海洋大学海洋发展研究院院长 摘要：从1979年起，40年来，中美贸易关系几乎从很低的起点“崛起”为全球经济中最大的一组双边贸易关系；然而，与世界上最大经济体之间的双边贸易关系不同，中美之间居然没有贸易协定！目前，中美试图通过“贸易磋商”治理“贸易摩擦”或者“贸易战”。这次贸易磋商可能会在2019年3月1日前达成一项贸易协议。需要不误解的是，这一协议并非《中美贸易协定》。本文呼吁，在走出“贸易战”后，为了治理中美贸易关系，两国政府需要早日启动谈判以达成《中美贸易协定》。 在贸易方面，加拿大、欧盟、日本等军事上的盟国是美国的主要贸易伙伴。保障或者管理美国与其主要贸易伙伴关系的是双边的贸易协定或者条约。美国也与其他主要贸易伙伴（如墨西哥）签有贸易协定或者条约。我们知道，特朗普政府的美国正在与欧盟和日本等谈新的贸易协定。与这些美国的主要贸易伙伴不同，中国这个美国最大的贸易伙伴却与美国之间并没有正式的贸易协定贸易条约。2017-2018年，特朗普政府要求修改1992年签署、1994年生效的《北美自贸协定》（NAFTA）。加拿大和墨西哥在美国重压之下不得不同意，2018年与美国一起签署了《美墨加协定》（USMCA）。中美之间没有《贸易协定》却有着巨大的贸易关系本身就是一个大问题，这意味着两国关系的基础之一的贸易并没有获得国际法治（international rule of law）或者国际治理（international governance）。 在特朗普政府之前，中美两国曾试谈《双边投资条约》（BIT）。在没有《贸易协定》的情况下谈判BIT本身就是奇怪的。自2017年1月特朗普上台后，没有听说中美继续BIT谈判，却在2018年发生了震惊世界经济的“贸易战”（尽管这个“贸易战”是雷声大雨点小）。 表面上，目前中美在通过达成某种协议缓解甚至结束“贸易战”。不过，我们要问，这样的协议是中美之间好不容易才有的管理整个贸易包括投资的协定，还是仅仅是就事论事解决一些美国方面这次“控诉”的与中国之间的“贸易逆差”以及结构问题？ 2019年1月10日，王岐山副主席“在纪念中美建交40周年招待会”上的致辞指出：“建交时，中美双边贸易不足25亿美元，相互投资几乎为零；2017年，双边贸易超过5800亿美元，各类投资累计超过2300亿美元”。 中美之间的贸易关系如此巨大是与中国的“改革开放”（1978-2018）分不开的。“改革开放”即中国发展或者中国现代化。中国的改革开放之所以是可持续的，是因为中国在与美国建交后即谋求恢复或者加入现有的国际经济组织（国际经济制度），这一加入在2001年达到高潮：中国加入WTO（“入关”）。中国本来是WTO的前身关税与贸易总协定（GATT）的创始国。在WTO取代GATT前，中国的谈判地位是恢复在GATT的席位（“复关”）。 尽管中美之间并无贸易协定，但是，中国加入代表现存的国际秩序的国际经济组织，为中美经济关系提供了国际制度或者全球治理的保障。 人们常用地质地理突变之如山如岭之“崛起”（the rise）来形容快速的中国经济和科技的发展（增长）带来了中国在国际体系或者国际格局中的地位或者作用的上升。“崛起”意味着变化之快、变化之复杂性，意味着大多数的或者主导性的预测并没有料到这一情况，而别的国家对这一变化的有效的系统的反应或者回应尚未形成。所以，“崛起”带来了新的问题，而且是重大问题。“中国崛起”（the rise of China）是冷战结束后出现的话语，且得到了持续不断地研究。 中美贸易等关系在“中国崛起”过程中不断膨胀，我把其叫做“中美相互依存的崛起”。这种情况就是中国方面一再说的中美关系成为世界上“最重要的双边关系之一”。然而，我们知道，“中国崛起”带来的中美关系的变化——中美相互依存的崛起尚未获得有效的治理（effective governance of the new China-US relations）。 我在上周的专栏文章指出，治理中美关系的首要工作是面对中美关系的基础之危，寻求中美关系的新基础，以及重建或者更新中美关系的基础。如果做不到这一基础之定，中美关系可能会失去基础，而失去基础的中美关系未必是随波逐流回到两国不相往来的状态，而是可能意味着许多人民不希望的更大冲突，甚至战争。 中美和平的基础之一是共享的国际体系和共存的国际秩序，而如今，美国对待现存国际体系和国际秩序的态度正在发生大的变化，中美之间对待国际体系和国际秩序的态度和政策之间的差异正在扩大。 2018年，中美“贸易战”的一大战场是WTO，中美在WTO和围绕WTO议题展开了激烈争论。这个争论反映的正是中美两国对待现存世界秩序的立场和政策之间的分歧和冲突。 中国政府在2018年6月首次发表了关于中国与世界贸易组织之间关系的《白皮书》（本来，中国应该在2001年加入WTO后之后就应该年度地发表这类白皮书）。这一《白皮书》指出：“以世贸组织为核心的多边贸易体制是国际贸易的基石，是全球贸易健康有序发展的支柱。中国坚定遵守和维护世贸组织规则，支持开放、透明、包容、非歧视的多边贸易体制，全面参与世贸组织工作，为共同完善全球经济治理发出中国声音、提出中国方案，是多边贸易体制的积极参与者、坚定维护者和重要贡献者。” 在《第二十次中国欧盟领导人会晤联合声明》中，中国与欧盟“双方坚定致力于打造开放型世界经济，提高贸易投资自由化便利化，抵制保护主义与单边主义，推动更加开放、平衡、包容和普惠的全球化。双方坚定支持以世贸组织为核心、以规则为基础、透明、非歧视、开放和包容的多边贸易体制并承诺遵守现行世贸规则。双方还承诺就世贸组织改革开展合作，以迎接新挑战，并为此建立世贸组织改革副部级联合工作组。” 2018年11月22日，中国、欧盟、印度等成员向WTO提交关于WTO争端解决机制（Dispute Settlement Body）的联合提案。2018年12月12日，包括中国、欧盟、加拿大等在内的数十个世界贸易组织（WTO）成员在WTO总理事会会议上发表联合声明，敦促尽快启动WTO上诉机构（Appellate Body）成员遴选程序。中方提出了“对世贸组织的改革中方提出三个基本原则和五点主张”。 在中国等通过支持WTO及其改革而“捍卫自由贸易，反对贸易保护主义”的同时，美国政府却站在了多边自贸体制的对立面。2017年，特朗普政府上台后，美国阻止任命WTO上诉机构新法官。2018年11月22日，在WTO争端解决机制例会上，墨西哥代表71个成员再次提出倡议，建立上诉机构新法官甄选委员会。但这一倡议再次被美国以目前机制未能解决系统性关切等理由否决。特朗普总统本人以及特朗普政府的内阁成员甚至多次威胁，美国退出WTO也不是没有可能的。 不过，如果中国真的坚持“规则为基础”的世界经济秩序在治理世界经济问题中的中心性，特朗普政府对待WTO的态度与政策反而为中国在维护WTO代表的现存世界贸易秩序和全球贸易治理上可能提供了重大机会。澳大利亚前总理陆克文观察到了这一点：“中国可能不仅向美国，也向世界贸易组织所有成员国，做出在一段时间内将关税降至零的重大承诺。这将是中国捍卫全球自由贸易、遏制保护主义趋势的一个几乎不可抗拒的机遇。” 最近有多位学者和智库（如由著名学者王辉耀领导的中国与全球化智库）建议中国加入美国退出的但日本等11个亚太地区国家达成的《跨太平洋伙伴关系》（CPTPP）中。这确实是一个重要建议。 中国也在积极推动有日本和印度参加的《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》（RCEP）等早日达成协议。 总的看，中国需要三管齐下治理中国与世界的贸易关系：第一，通过有效的WTO改革挽救WTO，为美国留在WTO和美国走出WTO做两手准备；第二，如果目前的中美贸易摩擦得到缓解，应该抓住机会，启动中美《贸易协定》谈判。第三，要积极参与高质量的、代表全球化4.0和未来全球贸易治理的区域性贸易协定。转变对原TPP、现CPTPP的态度和政策是一个关键。有关中国参加CPTPP我将另文专论。 文章选自华夏时报网，2019年1月15日
2019年1月16日 -
何伟文: 政治风浪无法阻挡中美经贸合作
专家简介
2019年1月14日 -
基于三条理由，魏建国预判中美经贸磋商会有积极成果
专家简介
2019年1月7日 -
Harvey Dzodin: Will China’s steps for the economy pay
By Harvey Dzodin，a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG). Just as the year 2018 is fast winding down, significant policy decisions proposing economic reforms affecting the economy in China, and therefore the global economy, have considerably been ramped up. While most consequences won’t be felt for some time, there is a strong sense of positive movement on the Chinese side as we head into 2019, the 70th anniversary year of New China, and into 2020 when China’s goal of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects is expected to be achieved. Taken as a whole, these decisions should not only stabilize and energize China’s economy but also further open China’s vast market to foreign and multinational companies. The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) that included top central government leaders, and other leaders and experts met in Beijing from December 19 to 21 to set economic policy for the coming year. The CEWC report made specific recommendations for both stabilizing the Chinese economy and further developing its domestic market as the top priorities. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang will announce detailed recommendations and implementation strategies at the two sessions in March. A man walks through an Apple Store in Beijing, China, November 30, 2018. /VCG Photo A few days after the CEWC adjourned, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China’s economic planning agency, in cooperation with the Ministry of Commerce, released a draft Foreign Investment Law (FIL) that has the potential to significantly open up much of China’s domestic markets to foreign investment and at the same time promises intellectual property protection and bans forced technology transfers from foreign companies to domestic Chinese entities. The CEWC recommendations were made in light of the current ongoing trade dispute between China and the U.S. The draft FIL, although part of a longer-term process begun before U.S. President Donald Trump took office, are also made in light of the trade dispute. Even though it’s the Christmas-New Year holiday season in Washington, D.C., and parts of the U.S. federal government are currently shut down and will remain so for some time due to a domestic political matter, active and robust bilateral negotiations are being held with progress being reported. Several steps could influence a more positive outcome of these negotiations in the bilateral trade dispute before the truce expires on March 2, 2019. Draft laws deliberated upon by the National People’s Congress (NPC) often take three or more readings, so normally the proposed FIL might not be passed until 2020 at the earliest. Some legislators, however, are calling for speedy consideration no later than the next NPC plenary session in March. This is possible although enactment is complicated by the unusually long comment period for this legislation runs until February 24. Of course, it will take months or years to see if the law’s promises are fulfilled, but this legislation is a potential giant step in the right direction. Tiananmen Square, Beijing, China /VCG Photo Intellectual property disputes are complex and often not easy to resolve. The U.S. side will be looking to see if enforcement provisions can be expeditious, fairly and expertly handled by the Chinese judicial system. In a lucky coincidence effective this Tuesday, a new branch of the Chinese Supreme People’s Court (SPC) dedicated to resolving IP disputes will open under the leadership of a respected SPC IP judge, Luo Dongchuan and is best suited to professionally resolve these complicated disputes. I believe these steps represent a good-faith effort by China to address U.S. concerns. It will be up to the U.S. side to also show good faith, something that often has been in short supply for the past 23 months. From CGTN, 2018-12-29
2019年1月2日 -
He Weiwen: China-US trade growth over the past augurs Coop. to continue
By He Weiwen, a senior research fellow at the Center for China and Globalization(CCG). The China-US two-way trade has witnessed the most gigantic growth in human history over the past 40 years since diplomatic relations was established in 1979, but also the largest trade friction in the history of world trade in 2018. The China-US two-way trade volume increased by 238-fold in the past 39 years, from 2.45 billion U.S. dollars in 1979 to 583.70 billion U.S. dollars in 2017. The first 11 months of 2018 saw trade volume reach 582.87 billion U.S. dollars, with the whole year volume set to create a new historic high, despite the massive trade frictions imposed by the Trump Administration. Trade and investment relations between the two countries can be roughly divided into four periods over the past 40 years. A Chinese Ministry of Commerce regular press conference, December 13, 2018. /VCG Photo. Period One, 1979-1988. The first decade of diplomatic ties saw a sound business relationship with no major issues. Trade volume increased from 2.45 billion U.S. dollars in 1979 to 12.3 billion U.S. dollars in 1989, representing a 5-fold increase in 10 years. Large numbers of U.S. multinational enterprises started making investments or having a presence in China, including Boeing, Coca-Cola, Weyerhaeuser, IBM, etc. Period Two, 1989-1999. It was a difficult decade. Bilateral trade relations deteriorated drastically after 1989. The U.S. intensified restrictions on high-tech exports to China, resulting in a fall of trade in 1990. During the 1990s, China and the U.S. have three rounds of negotiations: the U.S. 301, super 301 and 307 investigations. Both sides finally reached agreements in each of them. In 1999, the NATO bombing of the Chinese Embassy to Yugoslavia caused a crisis in bilateral diplomatic relations. Nonetheless, all the turbulence or difficulties did not stop the fast trade growth. China-U.S. trade reached 61.48 billion U.S. dollars in 1999. What is more important, both governments reached the historic agreement on China’s accession to WTO, a decisive step towards China’s WTO membership. Period Three, 2000-2016. Bilateral trade gained further momentum. Although bilateral diplomatic relations again fell into a new critical difficulty due to an incident involving a U.S. spy airplane that killed a Chinese pilot over the South China Sea in early 2001. The 9/11 incident in the U.S. brought bilateral relations back on track and China became a full member of WTO on December 11, 2001. China’s WTO accession was a strong force behind bilateral business relations. The two-way trade volume hit 519.6 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 597.7 percent over 2000, or 12 percent per annum. China’s direct investment in the U.S. started to soar in 2014 and culminated in 45.6 billion U.S. dollars in 2016. Period Four, 2017-2018. The Trump Administration set China as the largest target of the trade war and launched a 301 investigation which resulted in 10-25 percent additional tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese exports to the U.S., never seen in the bilateral trade relations over the past 39 years, nor in the history of world trade. Despite that, the two-way trade has been growing astonishingly well. It reached 583.7 billion U.S. dollars in 2017, an all-time high, rising 12.3 percent over the previous year, and 582.8 billion U.S. dollars in the first 11 months of 2018, 12.9 percent up year-on-year. A new historic high is set to happen this year. Due to the Trump Administration’s strict restrictions, China’s investment in the U.S. saw a 40-percent decline in 2016 and a further 90-percent fall in the first half of 2018. On the other hand, the U.S. investment in China has kept a marginal rise. The fundamental reasons behind current China-U.S. trade frictions are: First, the U.S. does not tolerant China’s rise as a socialist power under the leadership of CPC. Second, the U.S. tries its best to stop China from threatening the U.S.’s world dominance in high tech and high-end manufacturing. Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on December 7, 2018 in New York City. /VCG Photo. And thirdly, the U.S. does not accept China’s Belt and Road Initiative in reshaping the world order. As a result, bilateral trade tensions will continue, although it is almost certain that the current 90-day bilateral trade negotiation will reach an agreement. On the other hand, it is less likely that the relationship between the two countries will “derail” and enter a new cold war. The fundamentals lie in the fact that both economies have been intertwined into the global supply chain and thus could not be derailed by any policies. In 2015 alone, bilateral trade and investment supported 2.6 million jobs and contributed 1.2 percentage points GDP growth in the U.S.. By the end of 2017, the total U.S. investment stock in China hit over 200 billion U.S. dollars with sales in China’s market exceeding 600 billion U.S. dollars and total profit exceeding 70 billion U.S. dollars. GM had a global sale of 8.9 million units in 2017, with 4.04 million units, or 45.4 percent sold in China. China’s market shares in the top 10 U.S. semiconductor companies in 2017 ranged from 80 percent for Skyworks Solutions, 63 percent for Qualcomm, 52 percent for Broadcom, 50 percent for Micron, to 23 percent for Intel. As a result, no political force can change these economics. Looking ahead, China and US trade relations, whatever the twists and turns, will ultimately return to the track of win-win cooperation and stable growth, benefiting the two nations and contributing to the world’s economic growth as well. From CNTN， December 18, 2017
2018年12月25日
